Why the Crisis Happened
After the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the
US Congress passed a new law called the Glass-Steagall
Act so that history could not repeat itself. Fifty years
later, Congress repealed this law and consequently,
history did repeat itself. There are two principal
causes to the current global crisis. The first is
overproduction and the second is the deregulation of the
financial markets, which is, in fact, a direct result of
the first cause, overproduction.
Since the Second World War, humans, in
particular production engineers and economists, have
become brilliant at manufacturing on a large scale high
quality goods by top brands that people want to buy.
Engineers and economists have used both robotics and the
outsourcing of production to parts of the world where
the cost of labour is low. Fantastic products are made
very cheaply, sent all over the world in containers and
sold at bargain prices. All this has happened in a
highly competitive environment.
This intense activity caused two
important things to happen. The governments of
manufacturing countries like China became very rich and
formed the now famous sovereign wealth funds with the
objective of investing all this lovely capital.
Investing in industry was unattractive as profit margins
were very slim. Investors wanted bigger profits. Strict
banking regulations also made life very difficult for
investors. Secondly, all this liquidity caused a
continued increase in the price of real estate, just
like in the 1920s.
When the US Congress repealed the Glass-Steagall
Act, investment banks and retail banks were able to work
together again for the first time in 50 years. Next, not
to be left behind, the European financial sector lobbied
the European Union, mostly in secret, to liberate the
European market. This deregulation put an end to
transparency in the banking world. Hedge funds, whose
investments are carried out under the cover of darkness,
mushroomed. Simplicity was replaced by complexity and
uncertain risk. Credit default swaps gave investors
large payouts for loans gone bad and futures, which are
more like bets than investments, offered juicy returns.
The world now had a stagnant real economy and a very
busy financial sector. In the USA, the financial sector
accounted for 40% of the nation’s total profits but less
than 5% of the GNP.
Hungry investors then began speculating
on the price of food commodities, especially rice and
wheat and this was when we saw the first signs of
trouble. The price of wheat flour increased more than
25% due to speculation and the Spaghetti Riots broke out
in Italy. Petrol prices increased further and further
still. Farmers complained that they could not afford to
refuel their tractors and truck drivers went on strike
in Spain.
On January 24 2008, the French investment
bank Société Générale announced that it had lost an
astounding 7.2 billion dollars of its clients’ money
from futures which went the wrong way. Next, in the
space of just 6 weeks, the price of a barrel of crude
oil fell from $150 a barrel in July to less than fifty
by October. Then we found out about sub-prime loans.
Investment banks and retail banks, working together, had
lent vast quantities of their clients’ money to high
risk borrowers. This means borrowers who are likely to
default on their home loans or mortgages because of low
incomes and job instability. And guess what? They
defaulted, handed back the keys to the house and the
banks are now left with properties that nobody wants and
whose value continues to fall. What a disaster! After
that, it was the turn of the hedge funds. Many banks,
such as Grupo Santander, passed on investors’ money to
hedge funds who then passed the money on to... Bernard
Madoff.
Governments have now
spent billions of taxpayers’ money because of the
mistakes made by greedy and irresponsible bankers and
The White House has said that the US deficit will rise
to $1.6 trillion in 2009. The Bank of England puts the
cost of the global crisis at $2.8 trillion but nobody
really knows and nobody really knows what all this means
for the future.
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